Airfares forecast to stabilize in 2025 as global air capacity grows
Amex GBT’s Air Monitor 2025 expects price rise slowdown, but challenges for travel buyers as airlines advance smart revenue management and dynamic pricing
Airfare price increases will level off globally in 2025, according to Air Monitor 2025 from American Express Global Business Travel (Amex GBT), a leading software and services company for travel, expense, and meetings & events.
While fares on most routes will increase year on year, expected increases are modest – with significant regional variances – continuing a trend that started in 2024.
The Air Monitor, developed by Amex GBT Consulting, is a comprehensive annual forecast of global airfares, industry trends and advice to help businesses optimize their air programs in a rapidly changing aviation landscape. This year’s edition outlines factors shaping prices, including continued growth in global air capacity, and a return to more traditional seasonal patterns in leisure travel.
Gerardo Tejado, SVP Professional Services, Amex GBT, said: “In 2025, businesses will be faced with a new reality in their air programs – even though price rises are levelling off and capacity has returned, fares remain high. Corporates should expect tough negotiating stances from airlines, particularly as carriers evolve their distribution models. Business travel buyers will need to be strategic – for example, around loyalty and program performance data – to get value in this environment.”
Global air price moves in 2025
| Route | Business class | Economy class |
| North America <> North America | +2.7% | +2.8% |
| North America <> South America | -1.0% | -8.0% |
| North America <> Europe | +1.5% | +0.8% |
| North America <> Asia | +2.2% | -0.1% |
| South America <> South America | +0.3% | +3.6% |
| Europe <> Europe | +1.2% | +2.8% |
| Europe <> Asia | +8.2% | +6.6% |
| Europe <> Middle East | +6.8% | +6.7% |
| Middle East <> Middle East | -1.2% | +3.7% |
| Asia <> Asia | -1.5% | +2.3% |
| Asia <> Australia | +6.1% | +12.0% |
| Australia <> Australia | +7.8% | +13.7% |
| Australia <> New Zealand | +5.4% | +8.2% |
Factors influencing airfares for 2025 include:
● Labor costs and shortages: Ongoing labor disputes and pilot shortages, particularly in North America, continue to impact airline operational costs, leading to potential fare increases.
● Fuel costs: While fuel prices have been stable in 2024, geopolitical tensions could still drive fluctuations that affect overall ticket prices.
● Carrier-imposed surcharges: Airlines continue to introduce new surcharges, including environmental surcharges and new GDS fees, further increasing ticket prices.
● Airlines deploying enhanced revenue management technologies and pricing strategies.
View the full report here.
About American Express Global Business Travel
American Express Global Business Travel (Amex GBT) is a leading software and services company for travel, expense, and meetings & events. We have built the most valuable marketplace in travel with the most comprehensive and competitive content. A choice of solutions brought to you through a strong combination of technology and people, delivering the best experiences, proven at scale. With travel professionals and business partners in more than 140 countries, our solutions deliver savings, flexibility, and service from a brand you can trust – Amex GBT.
Visit amexglobalbusinesstravel.com for more information about Amex GBT
