MONTRÉAL, Sept. 24, 2025 /CNW/ – Air Canada today provided certain estimated results for the third quarter of 2025 and updated full year 2025 guidance, which was suspended in August 2025. Air Canada also provided an estimate of the financial impact of the labour disruption in August by the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE), the union representing cabin crew.

Q3 2025 Estimated Results

Air Canada anticipates, for the quarter ending September 30, 2025:

• Operated capacity to decline by approximately 2% from the same period in 2024 as a result of the cancellation of more than 3,200 flights;
• Operating income between $250 million and $300 million, which includes approximately $175 million from one-time non-cash pension plan amendments and other labour related charges and adjusted EBITDA between $950 million and $1 billion. Air Canada’s operating income totalled $1.040 billion and adjusted EBITDA $1.523 billion for the third quarter of 2024.

Labour Disruption Impacts

During the collective bargaining period with CUPE, Air Canada developed comprehensive plans to ensure the safe and orderly wind down and restart of its operations in the event of a labour disruption. When CUPE gave notice of its intent to strike, Air Canada acted on these contingency plans and ultimately cancelled over 3,200 flights in August 2025.

Financial impact. The financial impact of the labour disruption, which included an unlawful strike, is estimated to be $375 million in operating income and adjusted EBITDA. This amount is derived from the combination of three components. First, the revenue impact is estimated to be $430 million, mainly due to refunds issued to customers, customer compensation and lower than expected travel bookings in August and early September. Second, $145 million in costs are estimated to have been avoided due to less flying activity, largely attributable to lower fuel expenses. Third, the cost avoidance was partially offset by an estimated $90 million of incremental costs associated with reimbursements to customers for out-of-pocket expenses and labour-related operating costs.

Affected customers. Air Canada deeply regrets the impact of the disruption on its customers and remains committed to resolving every claim submitted by affected customers quickly and accurately, having done so for more than 60,000 claims to date. Air Canada continues to update its progress and to provide information on its goodwill policies at the dashboard available at www.aircanada.com/action.

Arbitration with CUPE. Air Canada and CUPE are proceeding to arbitration to finalize the wage portion of the four-year tentative agreement. No labour disruption can be initiated by either party during the arbitration process or the term of the new agreement.

Updated Full Year 2025 Outlook

Air Canada is restoring and updating its full year 2025 financial and capacity guidance to reflect the financial and operational impact of the CUPE labour disruption and its expectations for the remainder of 2025, as follows:

Metric	Updated 2025 Guidance	Prior 2025 Guidance (Suspended on August 18, 2025)
Adjusted EBITDA	$2.9 billion to $3.1 billion	$3.2 billion to $3.6 billion
ASM capacity	0.5% to 1.5% increase versus 2024	1% to 3% increase versus 2024
Adjusted CASM	14.60 ¢ to 14.70 ¢	14.25 ¢ to 14.50 ¢
Free cash flow	-$50 million to $150 million	Break even +/- $200 million